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2000 Senate · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.039) = -6.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.038| = 6.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73383, race ID 1703 (538 database).