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2000 President · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (24.189) = -9.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.189| = 9.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73383, race ID 840 (538 database).