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2010 Governor · AZ

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 51%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.47% · Republican 54.33%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 51 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.471 − 54.334 = -11.863
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-11.863) = -5.137
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.137| = 5.137

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73537, race ID 1276 (538 database).