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2006 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 48%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.22% · Republican 57.95%

R+19.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 48 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.218 − 57.946 = -19.728
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-19.728) = 2.728
  4. Absolute miss = |2.728| = 2.728

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73578, race ID 1335 (538 database).