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2006 Governor · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 47%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.22% · Republican 57.95%

R+19.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 47 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.218 − 57.946 = -19.728
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-19.728) = 3.728
  4. Absolute miss = |3.728| = 3.728

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73579, race ID 1335 (538 database).