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2006 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 547 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 68% · Republican 25%

D+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.50% · Republican 33.50%

D+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 68 − 25 = 43.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.504 − 33.496 = 33.008
  3. Signed miss = 43.00 − (33.008) = 9.992
  4. Absolute miss = |9.992| = 9.992

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73597, race ID 1352 (538 database).