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2006 Governor · FL

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 46%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 46 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-7.073) = -6.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.927| = 6.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73599, race ID 1334 (538 database).