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2013 House · SC-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2013-04-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,807 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 39.5%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 41.87% · Republican 54.03%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 39.5 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 41.874 − 54.026 = -12.152
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (-12.152) = 12.652
  4. Absolute miss = |12.652| = 12.652

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73676, race ID 1782 (538 database).