2008 House · LA-6
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-04-28 (5 days before the election) · 501 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 41%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.20% · Republican 46.27%
D+2.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 49.203 − 46.275 = 2.928
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.928) = 6.073
- Absolute miss = |6.073| = 6.073
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73708, race ID 1808 (538 database).