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2008 House · IL-14

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-03-03 (5 days before the election) · 517 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.53% · Republican 47.47%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.528 − 47.472 = 5.056
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.056) = 1.944
  4. Absolute miss = |1.944| = 1.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73712, race ID 1812 (538 database).