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2008 House · IL-14

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2008-02-23 (14 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.53% · Republican 47.47%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.528 − 47.472 = 5.056
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.056) = -1.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.056| = 1.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73714, race ID 1812 (538 database).