Skip to content

2005 Governor · NJ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2005-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 39%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 39 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.449) = -5.448
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.448| = 5.448

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73732, race ID 1363 (538 database).