2003 Governor · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2003-11-11 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 46%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.898) = -7.898
- Absolute miss = |-7.898| = 7.898
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73766, race ID 1378 (538 database).