2003 Governor · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2003-11-08 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39.5% · Republican 47.6%
R+8.1
The certified result
Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39.5 − 47.6 = -8.10
- Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
- Signed miss = -8.10 − (3.898) = -11.998
- Absolute miss = |-11.998| = 11.998
The poll overstated the Republican by 12.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73768, race ID 1378 (538 database).