2003 Governor · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2003-10-28 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 49%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 49 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (3.898) = -14.898
- Absolute miss = |-14.898| = 14.898
The poll overstated the Republican by 14.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73774, race ID 1378 (538 database).