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2020 Senate · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-12-15 (21 days before the election) · 605 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 51.2%

R+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 51.2 = -2.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = -2.40 − (2.080) = -4.480
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.480| = 4.480

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73801, race ID 7781 (538 database).