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2002 Governor · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,312 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.31% · Republican 57.76%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.307 − 57.758 = -19.451
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-19.451) = 12.451
  4. Absolute miss = |12.451| = 12.451

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73833, race ID 1405 (538 database).