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2000 Governor · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.02% · Republican 46.26%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.015 − 46.259 = 5.756
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.756) = -4.757
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.757| = 4.757

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73853, race ID 1423 (538 database).