1998 Governor · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 629 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 30%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.08% · Republican 34.29%
R+6.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 30 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 28.082 − 34.292 = -6.210
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-6.210) = 8.210
- Absolute miss = |8.210| = 8.210
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73856, race ID 1450 (538 database).