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2020 Senate · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-12-21 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 49.4%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 49.4 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (1.226) = -3.125
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.125| = 3.125

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73886, race ID 8737 (538 database).