Skip to content

2012 House · NY-6

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 33%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.51% · Republican 24.60%

D+32.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 33 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.510 − 24.604 = 32.906
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (32.906) = -29.907
  4. Absolute miss = |-29.907| = 29.907

The poll overstated the Republican by 29.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73896, race ID 5159 (538 database).