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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-12-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,022 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 50.4% · Republican 47.7%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.4 − 47.7 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (1.226) = 1.475
  4. Absolute miss = |1.475| = 1.475

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73906, race ID 8737 (538 database).