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2020 Senate · GA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-12-28 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (1.226) = 6.775
  4. Absolute miss = |6.775| = 6.775

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73908, race ID 8737 (538 database).