2020 House · VA-7
Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51.6% · Republican 41.4%
D+10.2
The certified result
Democrat 50.82% · Republican 49.00%
D+1.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51.6 − 41.4 = 10.20
- Actual margin = 50.820 − 48.999 = 1.821
- Signed miss = 10.20 − (1.821) = 8.380
- Absolute miss = |8.380| = 8.380
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73911, race ID 8243 (538 database).