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2010 House · NM-2

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 29.4% · Republican 49.5%

R+20.1

The certified result

Democrat 44.60% · Republican 55.40%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.4 − 49.5 = -20.10
  2. Actual margin = 44.597 − 55.403 = -10.806
  3. Signed miss = -20.10 − (-10.806) = -9.294
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.294| = 9.294

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73913, race ID 4718 (538 database).