2010 House · PA-8
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.48% · Republican 53.52%
R+7.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 46.477 − 53.523 = -7.046
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-7.046) = 9.045
- Absolute miss = |9.045| = 9.045
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73916, race ID 4798 (538 database).