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2020 Senate · GA

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2021-01-01 (4 days before the election) · 713 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 50%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 50 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.226) = -1.225
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.225| = 1.225

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73959, race ID 8737 (538 database).