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2006 House · AR-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 469 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 39%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.53% · Republican 39.47%

D+21.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 39 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.528 − 39.472 = 21.056
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (21.056) = -0.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.056| = 0.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74004, race ID 3607 (538 database).