2006 House · FL-5
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 495 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 55%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.15% · Republican 59.85%
R+19.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 40.150 − 59.850 = -19.700
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.700) = 5.700
- Absolute miss = |5.700| = 5.700
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74027, race ID 3680 (538 database).