2006 House · FL-22
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.88% · Republican 47.13%
D+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 50.883 − 47.126 = 3.757
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (3.757) = 2.243
- Absolute miss = |2.243| = 2.243
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74032, race ID 3697 (538 database).