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2006 House · FL-24

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.06% · Republican 57.94%

R+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.059 − 57.941 = -15.882
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-15.882) = 13.881
  4. Absolute miss = |13.881| = 13.881

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74034, race ID 3699 (538 database).