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2006 House · IL-8

Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 39%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.90% · Republican 44.02%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 39 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.904 − 44.015 = 6.889
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.889) = -3.890
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.890| = 3.890

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74047, race ID 3725 (538 database).