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2006 House · IA-2

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.43% · Republican 48.57%

D+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.427 − 48.573 = 2.854
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (2.854) = -4.854
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.854| = 4.854

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74059, race ID 3747 (538 database).