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2006 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 663 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 19%

D+52.0

The certified result

Democrat 74.02% · Republican 25.83%

D+48.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 19 = 52.00
  2. Actual margin = 74.016 − 25.828 = 48.188
  3. Signed miss = 52.00 − (48.188) = 3.812
  4. Absolute miss = |3.812| = 3.812

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74106, race ID 1347 (538 database).