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2006 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 340 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.27% · Republican 48.65%

D+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.274 − 48.645 = 2.629
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (2.629) = -7.630
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.630| = 7.630

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74106, race ID 3832 (538 database).