Skip to content

2006 House · NH-2

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 619 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.61%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.713 − 45.609 = 7.104
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (7.104) = -10.104
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.104| = 10.104

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74107, race ID 3833 (538 database).