Skip to content

2006 House · TX-23

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-12-09 (3 days before the election) · 530 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.28% · Republican 45.72%

D+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.285 − 45.715 = 8.570
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (8.570) = -12.569
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.569| = 12.569

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74150, race ID 8748 (538 database).