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2004 House · CT-2

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 54.19%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.766 − 54.192 = -8.426
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.426) = 5.427
  4. Absolute miss = |5.427| = 5.427

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74172, race ID 3234 (538 database).