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2004 House · CT-4

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2004-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 411 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 47%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.56% · Republican 52.43%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.565 − 52.434 = -4.869
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.869) = -3.131
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.131| = 3.131

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74174, race ID 3236 (538 database).