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2004 House · LA-7

Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2004-12-02 (2 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 56%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.04% · Republican 54.96%

R+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 56 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.039 − 54.961 = -9.922
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-9.922) = -16.079
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.079| = 16.079

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74180, race ID 3332 (538 database).