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2004 House · MN-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 357 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.94% · Republican 53.99%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.943 − 53.992 = -8.049
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-8.049) = -9.952
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.952| = 9.952

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74187, race ID 3373 (538 database).