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2002 House · CT-2

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 376 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.91% · Republican 54.09%

R+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.910 − 54.090 = -8.180
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-8.180) = 3.180
  4. Absolute miss = |3.180| = 3.180

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74286, race ID 2798 (538 database).