2002 House · UT-2
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 515 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.43% · Republican 48.69%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 49.427 − 48.694 = 0.733
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.733) = 5.268
- Absolute miss = |5.268| = 5.268
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74319, race ID 3118 (538 database).