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2018 House · FL-1

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24.8% · Republican 55.5%

R+30.7

The certified result

Democrat 32.94% · Republican 67.06%

R+34.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24.8 − 55.5 = -30.70
  2. Actual margin = 32.941 − 67.059 = -34.118
  3. Signed miss = -30.70 − (-34.118) = 3.417
  4. Absolute miss = |3.417| = 3.417

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74942, race ID 254 (538 database).