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2020 President · FL

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,431 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40.7% · Republican 54%

R+13.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.7 − 54 = -13.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -13.30 − (-3.359) = -9.942
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.942| = 9.942

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74943, race ID 6220 (538 database).