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2002 Governor · AK

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 50%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.70% · Republican 55.85%

R+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 50 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.701 − 55.848 = -15.147
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.147) = -0.853
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.853| = 0.853

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75654, race ID 1382 (538 database).