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2004 President · IA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 571 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.1% · Republican 47.9%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.23% · Republican 49.90%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.1 − 47.9 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.233 − 49.901 = -0.668
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (-0.668) = 3.868
  4. Absolute miss = |3.868| = 3.868

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75924, race ID 767 (538 database).