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2021 Governor · VA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2021-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 1,095 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 48.4 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-1.930) = 1.030
  4. Absolute miss = |1.030| = 1.030

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 76810, race ID 8989 (538 database).