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2021 Governor · VA

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2021-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.930) = 1.930
  4. Absolute miss = |1.930| = 1.930

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 76907, race ID 8989 (538 database).