2021 Governor · NJ
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2021-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%
D+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (3.223) = 7.777
- Absolute miss = |7.777| = 7.777
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77052, race ID 8988 (538 database).